Patriots vs. Ravens: AFC Championship Betting Lines Free Pick

Championship Sunday is almost upon us and things are as they should be in the American Football Conference. The two best teams in the AFC are set to battle it out from the giant shaving can in the land of Chowder.

It’s the blazing aerial attack of the New England Patriots, up against the ground pounding, defensive minded, Baltimore Ravens for the right to play in Super Bowl XLVI. Is there a Pats vs. G-Men re-match looming?

>>> Bet on the AFC Championship at TopBet <<<

Ravens @ Patriots: AFC Title Game Preview

Kickoff for this NFL playoff betting action is slated for 3:00 PM ET, on Sunday, January 22, 2012, from Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts. The weather angle is calling for cloudy and cold!

New England (14-3 Home 8-1) played lights out against Denver as they came off their playoff bye week and busted up the Broncos 45-10 during Divisional Playoff action last weekend.

Securing home field advantage was crucial for the Patriots this season as QB Tom Brady is now 9-2 in home playoff games. New England is trying to get back to the Super Bowl for the fifth time in eleven seasons and the lucky number seventh time in franchise history.

Baltimore (13-4 Road: 4-4 away) came out of their playoff bye week with a relatively flat effort but were still able to dispatch of the Houston Texans 20-13 last weekend. Not securing the AFC 2011 regular season title could be fatal to the Purple Birds.

Being on the road was not good for Baltimore this season as they went 4-4 and lost to the likes of the lowly Jaguars and Seahawks. The Ravens will make it to the Super Bowl, for the second time in their 16 year history, with an upset win.

AFC Championship: Point Spread and Game Total Betting Trends

Homes teams in the AFC Championship are on a pretty decent run as the last five homies have won straight up and have covered as chalk in four of five contests. The lone exception was the Patriots who defeated the San Diego Chargers 21-12 in the 2007 AFC Championship game but failed to cover the monster 14 point spread.

It hasn’t always been that way though as the visitors had won six of the previous nine games, including the Patriots 24-17 loss to the Steelers as -10 point home favorites during the 2001 NFL season. Chalk teams are 7-3 since 2001 and have covered three straight.

In the Super Bowl era, dating back to the 1966 NFL season, total scoring in AFC Championship history has gone over 50 points nine times during the 45 games played. Recently, the AFC Title game has been like a well flowing ATM for OVER bettors. The total has gone past the line in three straight games and eight of the last ten contests.

New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens: Betting Lines and Free Pick

We surf over to TopBet.com for our Patriots vs. Ravens Free Pick wagering odds for the 2011 AFC Championship tilt. As a bright new beacon on the sports betting landscape, the sportsbook at TopBet will have betting lines posted throughout this contest – which should an instant classic in NFL lore.

Of the many tools we employ when doing our NFL handicapping research is taking a look at the correlation between Fantasy Football and how the games play out on the field.

One area we found what could be considered as a red flag is the Baltimore defense against tight ends during the 2011 NFL regular season. The Ravens covered the TE position with a blanket this season has they tied for second for the league low with three touchdowns allowed to the position.

They were also second in yards allowed at 665 (41.5 PG). Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski were held to a combined 85 yards and no scores in the Ravens vs. Patriots 2010 tilt won by New England 23-20 in Foxboro during the 2010 NFL season.

That said, the Ravens allowed three TD catches, two by Cleveland (Evan Moore) in Weeks 13 and 17 and one by Indianapolis (Jacob Tamme) in Week 14 to close out the season. We have our doubts that a defense with 14 players on the field could cover the dynamic dual in New England.

In the Year of the Quarterback, not to mention the TE position, we like the vastly superior pivot in this contest. New England is on a mission, they are on fire, and they get to play in their own backyard.  We would even venture a bet that Bill Belichick and the Brady Bunch would welcome a Super Bowl re-match against QB Eli Manning and the G-Men. We all know how that ended.

We liked Baltimore as the AFC Super Bowl finalist all the way back to August. If this contest was being played in M&T Bank Stadium we would be tempted to back the Purple Birds. One or two loses on the road can be shrugged off – losing four times, to teams with a 29-35 record, is a trend.

>>> Back NE over BAL at -7.5 (-110) with the TopBet Point Spread <<<

!! Stayed Tuned For Our NFC Championship Free Pick !!