NFL 2011 Wagering: Week Three Best Bet Free Pick

We were very surprised while we scoured the NFL Week Three betting lines at our top rated online sportsbooks this week. The number of teams posted as home dogs is one of the highest in recent memory.

Most online betting sites have seven of the home teams listed as pups – out of the 15 Sunday games. Kickoff for the exciting Week Three NFL betting action is scheduled from eight NFL stadiums at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 25, 2011.

NFL Week Three Best Bet: Ravens @ Rams

For today’s Best Bet Free Pick we are going to take a look at one of the home dogs as the Rams and Ravens get rolling at 4:05 PM ET from the Edward Jones Dome, in St. Louis, Missouri.

We have looked at the Baltimore loss to the Titans in Week Two from top to bottom and left to right. Call us out as floating down the river of denial but we still can’t believe the Ravens dropped that contest. Water under the betting bridge.

>>> Bet On The NFL At TopBet <<<

The Ravens need to be better at getting, and stopping, third down converts today. Baltimore was three of ten converting third downs (30%) while the Titans were a solid seven of 17 (41%) last weekend. Tennessee was also two for two on fourth down conversions. Reverse those stats and you can reverse the score as well. The Rams will be getting Rice in bulk today.

NFL Betting Lines: St. Louis Rams vs Baltimore Ravens Free Pick

We head to the new kid on the block and check in on the sportsbook at the TopBet online wagering websites for today’s Best Bet Free Pick betting lines. This line opened at Ravens -3.5 (-110) at most books but the number has climbed some since. We are actually surprised that it’s not higher.

St Louis is coming off of a tough Monday Night Football loss – on the road to the Giants. Between the 20’s the Rams outplayed the G-Men all night. This is however a young team, missing their veteran leader RB Steven Jackson. Young teams make mistakes that cost them games – like the ones the Rams made on MNF.

Baltimore is on the road for a second straight week but it’s a short trip to the “Show Me” State so we don’t see the travel, or the lack of home field advantage, being a factor. We also expect better pass defense from Baltimore as the Ravens won’t be selling out to stop the run – like they did against Titans RB Chris Johnson last weekend.

What we do see as factors are; the Rams are a banged up football team – on both sides of the ball, they are coming off a short week in which they suffered a demoralizing loss (not good for a young team), and they are matched up against an angry, yet very veteran, Ravens squad. Does anyone have some sheep shears? Yikes!

With both teams in rebound mode after a Week Two loss, we see Baltimore having more bounce in this one. If we had a farm – we would be very tempted to bet it on the Ravens on today!

>>> Back BAL over STL at -4.5 (-110) with the TopBet Point Spread <<<