Free Picks – Jets vs Steelers – NFL 2011 AFC Championship Sunday

Free Picks – Jets vs Steelers – NFL 2011 AFC Championship Sunday: It’s almost game time as the Pittsburgh Steelers are set to welcome the New York Jets to Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA, to battle in the AFC 2011 Championship Game.

On one of the grandest stages in football, either the Jets or the Steelers with earn a trip to North Texas to play in Super Bowl XLV with a win in “Clash at the Confluence”.

Kickoff is slated for Saturday, January 15, 2011, at 6:30 PM ET on CBS.

Latest Wagering Lines – Jets @ Steelers – Recent History

Superbook.com Spread: Steelers -4 (-110) ~Jets +4 (-110)

SportsInteraction.com Money Lines: Jets +170 ~ Steelers -200

Bodog.com Game Total: 38.5 (ov-105)

2010 NFL Regular Season – New York – Betting History

11-5 S/U ~ 9-7 ATS  ~ 5-3 ATS Road ~ 12-4 O/U ~ 8-0 O/U Road

2010 NFL Regular Season – Pittsburgh – Betting History

12-4 S/U ~ 10-6 ATS  ~ 5-3 ATS Home ~ 7-9 O/U ~ 3-5 O/U Home

Kickoff  Weather Forecast: 16°F ~ Feels Like 5°F  ~ Mostly Cloudy ~ Wind NE at 4 MPH.

Last Meeting: Jets 22 @ Steelers 17 – NFL Week 15 – December 19, 2010.

How We See It – Bears vs. Packers – AFC Championship Game Predictions

For the Steelers, it’s been all about home cooking as the season has wound down. Pittsburgh’s last game of the regular season was a 266 mile round trip visit to Cleveland to face the Browns. Other than that short skip and a hop, their last road trip was to Baltimore in Week 13 back on December 5, 2010. The importance of that nearly continuous home stand cannot be understated.

As for the Jets, we saw this movie last year. New York went on the road for three straight weeks in the 2010 NFL Playoffs. They defeated the Cincinnati Bengals and then shocked  the San Diego Chargers before falling flat with a 30-17 loss to Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium in the 2010 AFC Championship Game.

New York is a different team this season with QB Mark Sanchez in his second year plus the addition of RB Ladainian Tomlinson and former Steelers WR Santonio Holmes. The later said last weeks win over the Patriots was sweeter than his Super Bowl XLIII MVP game in 2009 with Pittsburgh. Had he caught the eventual game winner in a Steelers jersey against the Ravens last weekend, we doubt he would have stated that same line.

On the flip side you can say the same for Pittsburgh as Roethlisberger is on a mission to polish his tarnished image, RB Rashard Mendenhall is in his second full season (played in just four games as a rookie) and sophomore WR Mike Wallace is blooming into a true star with his blazing speed.

There isn’t a lot that separates these two teams on defense. New York has a slight advantage against the pass with their sixth overall regular season ranking to the Steelers who closed the season ranked 12th. CB Darrel Revis is a straight up stud pass defender but the Steelers are bringing a ton of healthy receiving weapons into this game.

One glaring defensive statistic that really jumps off the stat sheet is the Steelers #1 ranked run defense. The Jets just “plowed” through the Colts 25th and the Patriots 11th ranked run defenses. The 2011 version of the “Steel Curtain” will be an entirely different kettle of fish for Jets running backs LT2 and Shonn Green.

For the most part the Jets have backed off the trash talk after two weeks of verbal battery on their pending opponents. We thought the constant yapping would lead to their demise each of the past two weekends and have been wrong both times. This week we think the LACK of trashing talking may actually hurt the Jets. It shows apprehension and any level of doubt is not good when you roll into the Steel City.

How much stock should you put in the 22-17 win the Jets grinded  out during Week 15 action in Pittsburgh? If you are going to look at anything, look no further than the fact that the Steelers were without All World S Troy Polamalu as well as TE Heath Miller. Those two cogs will both play today.

Pittsburgh dominated the statistic sheet as they gained 378 yards of total offense to jus 276 for the Jets. The Steelers had 25 first downs to the Jets 17 while running 72 plays to the Jets 57 total attempts.

It should also be noted that the Jets had a Brad Smith 97 yard kickoff return to open the game and a safety late in the contest. The safety was huge as it prevented the Steelers from attempting a game tying field goal as they had moved to the Jets 10 yard line on the final drive of the game.

While we are not real big on streaks there is one “trend” in this game that we found to be amazing. The Steelers are an astounding 9-1 S/U and ATS in their last ten games played in January dating back to 2006. We all know that January is Championship month.

Three Keys to Betting on the 2011 AFC Championship Games

We spent a ton of time, all week long, researching and wrestling with this match-up. In the end, our FREE PICKS came down to three key factors.

1)    The Jets are on the road for the sixth time in seven weeks and that is brutal on the body in the National Football League.

2)   No one comes close to the Steelers when it comes to being “January Juggernauts”. For a point of reference, the Patriots and Colts are both 5-5 S/U in the month of January.

3)   The Jets have to be running low on fuel and they won’t have much success when they try to taxi down Heinz Field. That leaves the game in the hands of the Jets defense (also running on fumes) and sophomore QB Mark Sanchez.

This game opened at world-class sportsbooks like Bodog.com with the Steelers as favorites at -3 points (110)  and has moved up to -4 points as we approach kickoff. We don’t see the point spread being a factor here at all.

For those of you betting on the Game Total, the OVER is 9-1 in the Steelers last ten games in January. The only game in that stretch that went UNDER was the Steelers 21-18 win over the Colts in 2006 when the game total was a gaudy 48 points.

The Pittsburgh International Airport, that is Heinz Field, will ground the Jets, shake them down and then send them back to New York to retool for the 2011 NFL regular season.

A Steelers 24 Jets 13 final score leads to a Packers vs. Pittsburgh “Tumble in North Texas” during Super Bowl XLV.

AFC Conference Championship Free Picks: Steelers -4 ~ Steelers -170 ~ OVER 38.5 points

Game Day Wagering Lines – Steelers vs. Jets – AFC Playoff Bonus Offers

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