NFL Free Pick: Saints vs. Falcons Week 16 MNF Prediction

Even though both teams have clinched a playoff berth, there is still a ton on the line tonight as the New Orleans Saints host the Atlanta Falcons in the final Monday Night Football game of the 2011 NFL season.

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Kickoff for this NFC South Division football betting action is scheduled for Monday, December 26, 2011, at 8:30 PM ET, from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, in New Orleans, Louisiana. We’ll march with the Saints here!

Falcons @ Saints: 2011 NFC Playoff Scenarios

After Green Bay pummeled the Chicago Bears 35-21 on Sunday Night Football, the Packers locked up their Lambeau Field home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs. Who gets the #2 seed, and the coveted first round playoff bye, is now between the Saints and the San Francisco 49ers.

New Orleans (11-3 OA 6-0 Home) is still in control of their own playoff destiny and they can wrap up the NFC South Division title with a win tonight. The 49ers 19-17 Week 16 win over the Seahawks means if the Saints win their last two games, and the 49ers lose in Week 17,  New Orleans takes second overall in the NFC. We see the Saints earning the three seed in the NFC.

Atlanta (9-5 OA 4-3 Road) is back in the playoffs for a second straight season, which is a franchise first, because of the Packers pounding of the Bears on Sunday night. If they should win two straight, and the Saints loss their last two games, the Falcons would earn the #3 seed in the NFC. Much more likely, they will finish as the fifth or sixth seed and we see sixth as the more plausible scenario.

Week 16 MNF Betting Lines: New Orleans vs. Atlanta Free Pick

Scanning our top rated online sportsbooks, we were happy to find the Saints at -6.5 PTS on the JustBet.com point spread. Many books have pushed this line to -7 New Orleans and the half point could be important here. Never underestimate the importance of finding the best betting lines!

Dating back to the 2006 NFL season, Atlanta has gone 2-9 straight up against the Saints and 6-5 versus the spread. Prior to their 27-24 win in New Orleans last season, the Falcons had lost four straight at the Louisiana Superdome and went 2-2 against the spread in those contests.

We’re not entirely impressed by the Falcons recent 7-2 run as just one of the wins (Detroit 23-16) was against a playoff team. Atlanta’s last two loses came to the Saints and Texans who are both in the big dance. New Orleans hasn’t exactly played world beaters but they have won six straight including the 26-23 OT Week 10 win over Atlanta and a 49-24 pounding of the Detroit Lions.

Both of these teams have venue issues as they each play much better at home than they do on the road. The Saints haven’t lost a home game, that counted for anything, since Week 7 of the 2010 NFL season. Atlanta brings the better defense into this contest but the Saints have more than enough firepower built into their potent offense to counter it.

We have been split on this contest all week long. Atlanta looks to build momentum and keep their grip on the #5 playoff seed. The Saints desperately want the #2 seed. Saints QB Drew Brees needs just 305 passing yards to break Dan Marino’s single season record of 5,084 yards, set back in 1984.

New Orleans has the better offense, home field advantage, a sneaky good defense, and more on the line in this contest. We don’t expect a blowout – but we do like the Saints to cover here!

>>> Back NO over ATL at -6.5 (-110) on the JustBet Point Spread <<<